Agentic AI & Geopolitics
A three-part series from Momenta on how industrial companies build operating capability in an age of Agentic AI and geopolitical pressure.
We are starting the year with this series because across Momenta’s work with global manufacturers and industrial technology ventures, the same pattern keeps surfacing: Agentic AI capabilities are advancing faster than operating models can safely absorb them under growing geopolitical pressure.
Why Geopolitics is now an Operating Constraint
For decades, geopolitics sat in the background of industrial operations.
Trade policy, tariffs, export controls, and regional regulations were handled by specialists. Operations focused on efficiency. Supply chains assumed stability. Disruptions were treated as rare exceptions.
That world is gone.
In the current political climate, trade tensions, export controls, and retaliatory tariffs are not tail risks: they are the rulebook reshaping where industrial companies can safely invest in capacity and who they can depend on for critical inputs.
Executives can no longer treat home markets or trusted partners as geopolitically neutral. Tariff threats, sanctions, and shifting blocs mean every sourcing and footprint decision now embeds a geopolitical position, whether explicit or not.
Geopolitics now shapes the rhythm of daily operations. It determines where companies can source, how fast they can move, and which options remain viable when conditions change.
Optionality now matters just as much as efficiency.
Plant and supply chain teams face constant pressure from port congestion, sanctions, supplier failures, sudden export restrictions on key components, and regional content requirements for critical equipment.
Recent manufacturing surveys show a structural shift away from single lowest-cost networks toward diversified friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, with a growing share of companies relocating production specifically to reduce geopolitical exposure rather than labor or logistics cost alone.
However, many operating models still cling to assumptions of stability, even as the environment refuses to provide it.
When organizations treat geopolitics as an external risk instead of an internal operating constraint, execution slows. Teams fall back on manual replanning, offline spreadsheets, and escalation chains, precisely when speed and clarity matter most.
We described the resultant fragility in Part 1 of this series.
Acceleration outpaces Adaptation.
In a recent World Economic Forum analysis, agentic AI is described as “supercharging” supply chain and production execution, while legacy integration, data readiness, and governance are identified as the primary constraints to scale.
This mismatch does not reflect a lack of strategy. It reflects operating models built for optimization, not for switching.
Organizations that adapt effectively do not separate Agentic AI acceleration from geopolitical volatility. They route both through the same operating muscle:
- Data platforms designed for rapid reconfiguration of supply, production, and commitments under pressure.
Geopolitics no longer tests strategy alone. It tests whether operations can move.
Next in this series: Why most industrial AI pilots fail even when the technology works.
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Momenta is the leading Industrial Impact® venture capital firm, accelerating industrial innovators across energy, manufacturing, smart spaces, and the supply chain. Our team of deep industry operators has helped scale industry leaders and innovators to improve critical industries, the environment, and people's quality of life for over a decade. PitchBook has ranked Momenta as one of the ten best-performing venture capital firms for 2023 in its prestigious Global Manager Performance Score League Tables, and the firm is the only European-headquartered VC to secure a Top 10 spot on the list. For more information please visit http://www.momenta.one.
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